Don’t expect another 2017-style old season as Ethereum continues to slump compared to Bitcoin

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While Bitcoin (BTC) is showing strength through new higher highs and a new year high, Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) is showing weakness, especially the ETH / BTC pair.

ETH’s weakness is also a clear indication that most altcoins are showing no strength either, as they tend to mirror the performance of Ether.

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The 0.03 sats level is a critical barrier

ETH / BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The daily chart of the ETH / BTC shows a clear rejection at 0.0325 Sats, which means that the 0.03 Sats range is tested again. A very likely event is the breakdown of this level as the trend has been down since 0.04 sats.

This massive upward move reflected the strength of Bitcoin as BTC surged to $ 12,000 and Ether to $ 450, although the latter has remained in a general downward trend versus BTC in recent years.

Interesting weekly levels on the ETH / BTC chart

ETH / BTC 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

The levels to be observed are relatively easy to see in the weekly timeframe. If the correction continues for the ETH / BTC pair, a correction towards 0.026 sats looks likely.

This level is a crucial pivotal point for several arguments. The first is the 100-week moving average (MA), which is in this range. This MA should provide consistent support after which a breakout above the 200 week MA would signal further positive momentum for Ether.

However, prior to the breakout, the previous resistance zone is also around 0.026 sats, which can cause a nice support / resistance flip to occur, signaling a continuation on the upside.

Overall, the ETH / BTC has broken out of a one-year accumulation area and has reached a new higher high. A retest of the previous resistance zone to confirm support is therefore not unlikely.

December / January are the months to join ETH

ETH / BTC 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

As history shows, the best time to buy Ethereum was December and January.

Markets tend to move in cycles, and within cycles some smaller cycles also come into play. There are cycles in the cryptocurrency market that occur every few months.

One of these cycles is the confirmation and bottom construction for ETH price, which can signal a potential rally for altcoins. In the past five years, this floor structure was erected in December and January, after which significant stress peaks occurred.

Bitcoin dominance is still looking forward to a 65-67% test

BTC dominance 1 week chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s market capitalization dominance is increasing, similar to other fourth quarters of previous years.

Bitcoin dominance was below 65-67%, after which a rally over the altcoin markets took place. However, no retest has been confirmed that this downtrend is active.

It’s difficult to determine the importance of such a retest (since Bitcoin dominance is not a tradable asset), but the dominance is in a decent position to recover.

However, if the dominance cannot break above 65-67%, expect another continuation downward, which can cause altcoins to rebound strongly.

Maintain crucial level for ETH / USD

ETH / USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH / USD chart shows a significant breakout above the $ 380-385 resistance area, with the price of ether rising above the $ 400 mark.

The USD 380-385 area must now serve as support to confirm the breakout. If this range is not supported, the probability of a deviation above the range becomes relevant.

In this case, if the price of Ether drops below $ 380, then it is very likely that the range will be retested at $ 315-320.