On November 13, the open positions for Bitcoin (BTC) options totaling $ 525 million will expire. This is similar to last week when $ 470 million in open options also expired. This is a bit of an unusual activity as most of the volume goes through monthly and quarterly options.
On November 5th (last Friday) the open positions for put (sell) options were 30% higher than for call (buy) options. Deribit Exchange holds $ 431 million in open interest as of this Friday and Bit.com has $ 72 million.
Before jumping into any quick conclusions about whether this number is bullish or bearish, it is important to dig deeper to assess the potential buying and selling pressures just before it expires.
For example, a $ 18,000 call option holder will not have much profit if they increase the Bitcoin price to $ 16,500 with less than 32 hours to expire. These options are already classified as worthless by the market. The same applies to a put (sell) option up to USD 14,000.
By excluding call options above $ 16,700 and put options below $ 14,400, traders can get a more realistic view of current market conditions.
Deribit Exchange holds 5,915 BTC call options between $ 14,000 and $ 15,750. Bit.com is 1,050 BTC and OKEx currently holds 490 BTC. As a result, there is an immediate $ 117 million in open positions that support current levels.
Meanwhile, the put options range from $ 15,250 to $ 16,500 at 2,130 BTC on Deribit, followed by 860 BTC on Bit.com and another 100 BTC on OKEx. The immediate pressure on the sell side thus amounts to USD 48 million in open interest from put options.
The reason for this difference is that most put options have been written off and have no market value. This move excludes 84% of the open positions from put options of $ 298 million.
Therefore, if only the option closer to the market level is analyzed, there is a sizeable $ 69 million imbalance that favors the buyer side. Similar to the previous week, there have been some major declining deals likely related to US elections.
Regardless of whether the market is strong enough to break the $ 16,000 resistance, these short-term options currently support prices of $ 15,500 and above.
OKEx, Bit.com and Deribit weekly contracts expire on November 13th at 8:00 a.m. (UTC).
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