Bitcoin ‘Supercycle’ could emerge in 2021 if the Fed balance sheet hits a new record high


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Bitcoin (BTC) is increasingly looking like a “super cycle”, not just a bull cycle, suggests statistician Willy Woo.

At a Twitter exchange on February 12, popular analyst Dan Held, the growth leader of the US stock exchange Kraken, joined in and described the current BTC market as a bull run like no other.

Woo: Retail is here

Held had previously explained his theory about the state of Bitcoin in 2021 – that price gains cannot be compared to previous bull phases, not even reaching the end of 2017 when BTC / USD approached USD 20,000.

Instead, this year looks like a bull run on a completely different scale – a “super cycle” for Bitcoin.

In his own observations, Woo confirmed that data suggests retail investors will be returning to Bitcoin in January.

“The retail sector has arrived. The last 4 weeks. Welcome to the middle phase of the bull market. This one is like no other, ”he wrote.

When Held suggested that the super cycle had arrived with them, he replied that 2021 would provide confirmation.

“Can answer that with more confidence in the fourth quarter. Right now it’s just a basic narrative to see if the capital flows confirm it, ”he continued.

“The setup made me feel like it.”

Search interest in “Bitcoin” increased in the first part of 2021, but still has significantly more ground to cover to reach the 2017 peak.

Google Trends data for “Bitcoin”. Source: Google Trends

Thermocap achieves a price target of 110,000 USD BTC

With Bitcoin poised to tackle the USD 50,000 resistance next, the longer-term price indicators point further up even after the strong upward trend of the past few months.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin, known as the “Thermocap”, is one such metric that suggests gains are just beginning and a top is still a long way off.

Bitcoin Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio Chart with Comparisons. Source: Rafael Schultze-Kraft / Twitter

In an update this week, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, CTO of on-chain analytics resource Glassnode, estimated that if Thermocap was to repeat its performance in 2017, BTC / USD could hit $ 110,000.

“The last bull market, BTC, was ~ $ 8,500 when Marketcap to Thermocap was at current levels – and soared another 135% to the top in just one month. Things can go fast, ”he tweeted.

“Yeah, it’s different this time, but just in case: 135% of here is ~ $ 110,000.”

Fed balance sheet chart. Source: Holger Zschaepitz / Twitter

Macro pointers also continue to provide the perfect backdrop for increased interest in Bitcoin across the board. Last week, the US Federal Reserve added to its balance sheet by breaking all-time highs again.

“The #Fed balance sheet reached a new ATH of USD 7.44 billion last week, which corresponds to 34.7% of US GDP,” noted Holger Zschaepitz, market commentator at the German news agency Die Welt.

“At 70.7% of GDP, the Fed’s balance sheet is smaller than that of the ECB and much smaller than that of the SNB or the BoJ, where total assets are> 100% of GDP.”