Bitcoin is well above critical support at $ 47,000. BTC is trading at $ 50.067 at 1.6% on the 1-hour chart and sideways movement on the 24-hour chart and appears to be on the way to a rebound in the lower time frames. As many in the crypto space have said, this bull run is defined by its quick bounce backs and periods of consolidation.
BTC is moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview
The trader Josh Rager compared the price development of BTC in the past with the current price development. For Rager, a normal part of a bull run is for BTC to be below its 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). In 2017, the cryptocurrency fell under this metric at least 3 times.
The trader believes that if the price drops below its 200D EMA, investors should be “concerned”. In contrast, BTC never tends to go below this metric during bullish price movements.
Source: Josh Rager
Over the weekend, the trader expects a rebound when BTC drops to the middle of $ 40,000. Currently, the 10W EMA is converging with the weekly support level, Rager explained. This could serve as a good entry point for a long position in both BTC and altcoins, as the trader said:
The bottom might be in, but if bitcoin bounces off and then drops to $ 40,000. Would love to buy both $ BTC and alts in this area. As long as the price holds there we could see some big rallies in the next few months as BTC is slowly on the uptrend.
In the meantime, a side move could be the new normal for Bitcoin in the short term. Lex Moskovski, CIO at Moskovski Capital, believes the recent crash has “cooled down” BTC’s key overheating indicators.
As can be seen below, Moskovski compares the Bull Run metrics for 2017 to the current market and finds that Bitcoin is around 44% after potentially peaking in its uptrend. On the contrary, after this week’s crash there could be even more upward momentum. Moskovski said:
Bitcoin has cooled down a bit and, according to the major overheating indicators, now has even more upside potential.
Source: Lex Moskovski
What could break Bitcoin’s market structure?
The economist and trader Alex Krüger provided further arguments for a long-term upward trend in BTC. As Kruger said, this cryptocurrency has seen massive adoption with macroeconomic conditions that benefit it. Since 2020, the thesis of Bitcoin as a store of value has grown in strength among institutional investors.
Kruger presented two possible scenarios. For one thing, “main catalysts” are heating up the market again, and the price of BTC is pushing into a new period of discovery. The economist said:
The first half of that dump was expected, not the second, driven by news. Shit happens. Aside from a healthy cleanse, however, nothing significant has changed. If you expect good range, avoid getting bullish on breakouts or risk getting your head chopped off.
In the second scenario, the US government and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen enact new regulations for crypto and digital assets. Krüger expects “draconian” rules to have a negative impact on the market.
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