A total of $ 565 million in Bitcoin (BTC) options will expire on Friday, June 11. This is significant as the past few weeks have been a massive deception for the bulls. After all, the price struggled to maintain the $ 33,000 support.
However, an unexpected bullish turn saw it jump 18.5% from its low of $ 31,000 on June 8th to $ 38,491 today. That strong move saved the bulls as a level below $ 34,000 would have destroyed 98% of current call (buy) options.
Who saved the day
First, MicroStrategy, a publicly traded company holding over $ 3.2 billion worth of bitcoin, closed a $ 500 million bond offer on June 8, and the proceeds will be used to buy more BTC .
On the same day, the El Salvador Legislative Assembly approved Bitcoin as legal tender in the country. President Nayib Bukele stated that accepting Bitcoin is mandatory for all companies. In addition, the government announced it would hold $ 150 million worth of BTC in a trust fund.
The positive news flow continued on June 8th after Victory Capital, a $ 157 billion asset manager, announced it was investing in a private fund tracking the Nasdaq Crypto Index, 62% of which is Bitcoin, Altcoins consist of 32% ether (ETH) and 6% other funds.
Do bulls or bears have the upper hand?
The initial picture slightly favors bears as the call-to-put ratio is 0.93, although this indicator rates every option equally. However, the right to purchase Bitcoin for $ 42,000 in less than 24 hours is currently worthless, so that call option trades below $ 40 each time.
Related: Report says El Salvador’s bitcoin pump failed to attract smart money for the time being
A similar effect exists for the neutral to bearish put options at USD 30,000 and below. Holders have no advantage in extending them for the coming weeks, as these contracts have also become worthless. Therefore, to better assess how traders are positioned for Friday’s option expiration, analysts need to focus on the $ 33,000 to $ 41,000 area.
Bitcoin rose over 11% to $ 37,100 on June 9, causing some neutral to bullish call options to take a profitable position. With less than 24 hours to expire on Friday, call (buy) options up to $ 41,000 on 3,235 BTC contracts, currently valued at $ 120 million.
On the flip side, the neutral to bearish put options of $ 33,000 total 3,045 BTC contracts currently valued at $ 113 million. Therefore, both sides are practically balanced for the process on Friday.
Had Bitcoin stayed below $ 34,000, bears would have an advantage of $ 84 million, but the string of positive events seems just enough to save the day.
While there are no guarantees that the price will hold, at least the incentives for both sides to put the price under pressure are currently balanced.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement carries risks. You should do your own research when making a decision.