Bitcoin’s (BTC) drop below $ 29,000 on June 22nd rocked the markets of a handful of analysts calling for a possible drop below $ 20,000.
Many traders on crypto twitter have focused on the formation of a death cross on the bitcoin chart as an omen of another possible price decline, but analysts with a more contrary view see this chart pattern as a signal that it is time to buy the dip.
The ultimate thread on # BTC deathcross and cycle data analysis
1) Historical #deathcross to # goldencross time (in days) + largest price deflection since Deathcross began:
2011: 180 D, -59%
2014: 90 D, + 83%
2014: 390 D, -63%
2018: 360 D, -55%
2019: 105 D, -29%
2020: 50 D, + 66% pic.twitter.com/8JmbtnFLGJ
– venturefoundΞr (@venturefounder) June 17, 2021
Three reasons some traders are still seeing a bull fall for Bitcoin are the emergence of the “spring phase” of the Wyckoff accumulation model, steady buying by long-term owners, and the formation of a bear trap at the golden ratio, similar to movements seen in previous bull runs.
The Wyckoff model says spring is here
The Wyckoff accumulation model was the talk of the town cryptocurrency analysts last month as Bitcoin price action has followed the pattern relatively closely since the May 19 sell-off.
Wyckoff accumulation model – spring test
Seems like a possibility. We have just hit the lower low at 28.8K … If this model prevails, we will now re-enter the final stage of the recovery. Let’s see how it turns out. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/stuWJRWWoL
– Kevin Svenson (@KevinSvenson_) June 22, 2021
As seen in the tweet above, some analysts are suggesting that the “spring test” observed in Phase C of the Wyckoff pattern was met after Bitcoin’s slump below $ 29,000 and the subsequent rebound above $ 32,000. This would suggest that the bottom is near for the current correction and that the choppy climb is now beginning.
Should this prove to be true, BTC would enter Phase D, also known as the “Markup Phase”, where a new uptrend is established and offers “Pullbacks to New Support Buy Opportunities” that are often seen as opportunities to take the dip to buy.
Connected: Bitcoin falls below $ 36,000 as centuries-old financial model predicts a major BTC crash
A breakout to new highs is expected in Phase D as the cycle completes and prepares to potentially start again once the upward move is exhausted.
Long-term owners are still optimistic
Another bullish sign cited by analysts is steady accumulation by long-term holders.
If you are scared, just think about what the long-term Bitcoin holders are doing right now. Don’t let the vola wash you out, think long term. Https://t.co/koCh7pfGf9 pic.twitter.com/bAba8DUWo2
– Yann & Jan (@Negentropic_) June 22, 2021
Bitcoin’s long-term net owner position shows that investors were piling up as early as late April and increased their activity significantly in May when the price hit the $ 30,000 to $ 40,000 mark. On-chain data shows that these investors continued to invest in the recent slump.
This activity suggests that more experienced crypto traders are familiar with Bitcoin’s market cycles and view the current range as a good level to go long when fear is high and sentiment is low.
The greatest profits go to those who take the risk of buying an asset amid falling prices and sentiment, and these are the types of situations in which the contrary traders thrive.
A bear trap lurks at the golden section
The third scenario, which some analysts are focusing on, suggests that current price moves have created a bear trap reflecting a move from the last cycle that included a retreat to the golden section extension level of 1.618, which then broke out to new follows heights.
From this perspective, the market is currently in the awareness phase of the four psychological stages of asset bubbles. After the bear trap strikes, Bitcoin will enter the mania phase, where widespread media coverage attracts the attention of new entrants who then drive the price higher and higher, “based on the illusion that the asset will go up forever becomes”.
Earlier claims that Bitcoin could reach a price of $ 200,000 by the third or fourth quarter of 2021 by veteran trader Peter Brandt, who by no means alone predicted its value will exceed $ 100,000 this year, would suggest that the long-awaited blow-off top is yet to come.
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