Bitcoin (BTC) faces the prospect of hitting $ 47,500 to $ 50,000 based on the eerie similarity of its current trend to that of June through December 2019.
2019 bitcoin fractal
In detail, Bitcoin hit around $ 14,000 on June 26, 2019, before it was triggered for the remainder of the year due to the profit-taking stipulation and FUD triggered by the Bitcoin Cash hard fork, Facebook’s confrontation with regulators over its crypto Project Libra and then the threatening tone of US President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Bitcoin.
The flagship cryptocurrency crashed to nearly $ 6,500 in December 2019. In doing so, it caused its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) to fall below its 200-day SMA, a phenomenon that technical chartists refer to as the “death cross” and see what it is like formation as a sign of an impending one Clearance sale.
At the same time, however, the Bitcoin bulls kept the price above the 50-week SMA. The cryptocurrency’s one-day chart showed the bears’ attempts to push the price below its 50-week SMA. But cops bought these dips every time.
Deliberate buys near the 50-week SMA later resulted in a strong upward rally towards the 61.8% Fib level, which was a drop-down Fibonacci retracement chart that swung from around the $ 14,000 swing -Highly pulled to about $ 6,500 swing low.
The 2019 fractal also illustrated at least two bullish divergence scenarios in which Bitcoin price made lower lows while its daily relative strength indicator, a price momentum oscillator, made lower highs. It indicated weakness in the prevailing bearish momentum. And as it turned out, the price went up later.
In 2021, Bitcoin reconstructed the 2019 halfway scenario. Initially, the cryptocurrency correction from its record high of nearly $ 65,000 landed on the exact same 50-week SMA support of around $ 30,000. At the same time, moving it down enabled a death cross setup.
Bitcoin’s price movement over the past week also indicated a bullish divergence scenario, as shown in the chart below.
TradingShot, a market analysis platform, found that a bullish divergence formation combined with a rebound from the 50-week SMA support pushed Bitcoin prices back to the 61.8% Fib level on the current Fibonacci retracement graph from top to bottom could bring.
“Support for the 1W MA50 is critical as it is achieved even though Bitcoin is at lower lows (LL) while the 1D RSI is at higher lows (HL),” he explained.
“This is a bullish divergence and was also observed in October and late November through early December 2019. This divergence was sufficient to initiate the rebound to the Fibonacci retracement level at 0.618.”
On a chart provided by TradingShot, the 61.8% Fib level appeared at $ 47,500. Meanwhile, the other chart above showed the profit target near $ 50,000.
The statements came as Bitcoin closed the second quarter with a 41% loss and recorded its worst declines since the 43% sell-off in the fourth quarter of 2018. The recent decline in cryptocurrency was due to a spate of negative fundamentals, including China’s crackdown on the crypto industry, global regulators tightening their scrutiny, and Elon Musk’s anti-bitcoin tweets.
Meanwhile, demand for Bitcoin also declined following the Federal Reserve’s restrictive tone. The US Federal Reserve announced that it could hike its key rates through the end of 2023 to contain inflationary pressures, coinciding with a fall in BTC / USD rates on June 16 and beyond.
Despite strong headwinds, Bitcoin managed to hover above $ 30,000, a level of psychological support, and is currently back above $ 35,000. However, the equally strong resistance level at $ 40,000 keeps the short-term bearish bias of the cryptocurrency intact.
“It is believed that the longer we forego a $ 40,000 grip, the support will eventually collapse and give way to a sharp move toward $ 20,000,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at ThinkMarkets, the Wall Street Journal and noted that Bitcoin is left at the crossroads in the third quarter.
“Has all of the negative fundamentals been priced in? We can’t be sure, but if so, the bullish divergence of the 1D RSI is definitely showing something.”
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