It has now been three months since Bitcoin’s (BTC) last all-time high, but one measure suggests that holders may wait even longer for the next.
In a series of tweets on July 17, analyst Ecoinometrics revealed that this year’s decline from all-time highs is the second longest in the history of the Bitcoin bull market.
$ 30,000 can stay “for a while”
It has been 95 days since BTC / USD hit $ 64,500 and a major correction began. Investors are impatient, but despite strong fundamentals, Bitcoin’s spot price action seems in no hurry to move past $ 30,000.
At 55% below its highs, Bitcoin also threatens to cause problems for price forecasting models, including its historically unprecedented stock-to-flow.
However, if history is a guide, Bitcoin can still go sideways for months before rising to beat its record. As Ecoinometrics notes, in 2013 there was a period of 197 days between two all-time highs.
“This is one of the longest drawdowns Bitcoin has struggled with during a bull market after being halved,” he admitted on Twitter comments.
“But 95 days is still only half the length of the 2013 big drawdown.”
At that time, BTC / USD hit a floor price of 69% below its previous all-time high, which means that the current market constellation could also allow levels below USD 30,000 and still remain within historical norms.
However, in general, 2013 looks like the year most similar to Bitcoin price events that year.
“In terms of price trends, this correction also looks very similar to 2013,” concluded Ecoinometrics.
“If we continue like this, BTC will be stuck at $ 30,000 for a while …”
Small investors are anything but gone
As Cointelegraph reported, recent behavior in the chain has portrayed $ 30,000 as more than just a psychological trading zone for Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin Price Can Only Go Up If $ 30,000 Accumulation Continues – Research
In addition to several metrics that back up its importance, investors are starting to amass coins again, including those that were previously sold at the current level.
Over the weekend, statistician Willy Woo updated the picture, highlighting retail investor purchases and different types of whales that balance between purchases and sales.
“Retail is driving the bitcoin bull markets. If they stop buying, that’s a bear market warning. They haven’t stopped buying, ”he tweeted on Saturday alongside several charts.
“Last 30 days: whales sold 4k BTC, plebs bought 31k BTC.”