Professional traders are slightly skeptical of Bitcoin’s recent return to $ 50,000


The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is back at the $ 50,000 level, and there is no doubt that the positive rally of 47% over the past 30 days has become one due to the accumulation of whales, institutional acceptance and positive comments from regulators possible exchange-traded fund has been fueled (EFT) approval.

Despite the positive news flow, the top traders on crypto exchanges and derivatives data appear unaffected by the recent rally to the $ 50,000 resistance.

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Crypto analyst Will Clemente highlighted the accumulation of addresses between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC.

In other news, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo have partnered with New York Digital Investment Group, a technology and financial services company, to offer Bitcoin funds to their wealth management clients.

Positive expectations rose after United States Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler proposed an openness to approve ETF products that were exposed to regulated Bitcoin futures contracts under the Investment Company Act of 1940.

One final tidbit of positive news came when Bitcoin’s hash rate rose 5% over the past week, hitting 125 exahashes per second. Although it was 30% below its mid-May pre-Chinese ban, it has demonstrated the network’s operational resilience.

The futures premium has remained stable

One of the best measures of professional trader’s optimism is the futures market premium. It measures the gap between quarterly contracts and the current spot price levels. In healthy markets, an annualized premium of 6% to 14% is expected, which is the same as the lending rate on stablecoins.

However, when markets are falling, a backwardation scenario occurs because the indicator fades or turns negative.

OKEx September BTC Futures Contract Premium. Source: TradingView

For the past three weeks, the September contract had a premium of 0.7%, which is an annualized rate of 7%. Although far from negative, it shows a lack of confidence, with a bitcoin price rising 27% over the same period.

Related: $ 50,000 BTC Price vs. Fed – 5 Things To Watch For Bitcoin This Week

Options markets confirm the subdued sentiment

In order to rule out external effects specific to the futures instrument, one should also analyze the options markets. Whenever market makers and professional traders tend to be bullish, they charge a higher premium for call options. This trend causes a delta skew of -25%.

A skew indicator that fluctuates between -7% and + 7% is usually considered neutral. On the other hand, the metric shifts beyond this range when the downside protection is more expensive.

Deribit Bitcoin Options 25% Delta Skew. Source: Laevitas

The 25% delta skew did not show a significantly higher cost of upside hedging, which would have resulted in the index falling below the -7% threshold.

Both futures instruments, used primarily by whales and arbitrage desks, do not reflect the same wild optimism that crypto twitter and retailers displayed when the price of Bitcoin broke the “important” $ 50,000 mark.

As a result, there is strong evidence that top traders are not confident about buying at current levels.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement carries risks. You should do your own research when making a decision.