A Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) has a 75% chance of getting approved this month – in some form or another.
In comments this weekend, Eric Balchunas, chief ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said the US Bitcoin futures ETFs were “likely on schedule” for the regulatory go-ahead.
Bitcoin futures ETFs “very much alive”
October began with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announcing a frustrating but not uncommon delay in its decision to approve Bitcoin ETFs.
Instead of being admitted or rejected this month, the various applications will now start processing in November.
However, according to Balchunas, futures-based ETFs are more likely than not to be successful in the coming weeks.
“Yes, the SEC canceled the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, BUT the same applies to the physically supported under the 33 Act,” he told Twitter followers.
“The futures ETFs filed under the 40s Act (which Genz loves) are very much alive and probably on schedule (we believe a 75% chance was approved in October).”
Balchunas referred to SEC chairman Garry Gensler, who last week hinted a liberal stance on the instruments.
“After that, we started seeing filings under the Investment Company Act in relation to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) wishing to invest in CME-traded Bitcoin futures,” he said in his closing remarks at the Future of Asset Management North America Conference .
“In combination with the other federal securities laws, the 40 Act offers considerable investor protection for investment funds and ETFs. I look forward to employees reviewing such submissions. “
Canada’s Purpose Bitcoin ETF, which got the green light earlier in the year and beat US deals, continues to go strong.
A long and winding ETF path
The history of Bitcoin ETFs now spans several years and has seen several pivotal moments when proponents were all but certain that the SEC would give their approval.
Related: SEC registrants apply for approval of DeFi and physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs
Originally, the BTC price action could move significantly due to rumors related to such events, but this effect will wear off over time.
Bitcoin futures themselves received formal approval in December 2017, in time for the final days of Bitcoin’s advance to an all-time high of $ 20,000.