Bitcoin (BTC) may have hit highs of $ 60,000, but calculations suggest that the price level will be far more important for bears rather than bulls.
In an October 14 tweet, popular Twitter account TechDev once again highlighted historical data that has closely followed the ups and downs of Bitcoin so far.
How about an 80 percent BTC price crash to … $ 60,000?
While BTC / USD is expected to hit all-time highs again and climb to six-digit levels this year, investors are already turning their attention to how far Bitcoin will fall after its next blow-off top.
The idea that BTC price action moves in cycles – with a bearish phase and a bottom 80% of the blow-off top – has become widely accepted.
However, what is much harder to believe in the current circumstances is that $ 60,000 could just be the price floor of this potential 80% correction.
Using Fibonacci sequences, TechDev showed that each Bitcoin bear bottom fell into an identical range. This makes up both the lows of under $ 200 in 2014 and the floor of around $ 3,200 in December 2018.
Given the cyclical metamorphoses of Bitcoin, the next logical retracement is therefore aimed at between $ 47,000 and $ 60,000.
“I know that nobody cares about macros during a pump. But the last two BTC bear markets bottomed out in the previous cycle’s 1.486-1.618 log-fib pocket, “he commented.
“Suggests the next bear soil is 47-60,000. If we land there after an 80-85% decline … The math is fun.”
USD 60,000 as 20% of the top put Bitcoin for a test of USD 300,000 this cycle.
Eerie similarities to gold
The momentum behind Bitcoin was tied to expectations that US regulators would finally approve some form of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
Related: SEC Likely to Allow Bitcoin Futures ETFs to Trade Next Week: Reports
While opinions are mixed about the implications of such a decision, its importance is not a red herring, commentators say, and marks a real turning point for Bitcoin that is irreversible.
Austrian investor and analyst Niko Jilch referred to famous investor Paul Tudor Jones this week while explaining the “excitement” about the Bitcoin ETF.
Tudor Jones had previously pointed out that Bitcoin’s cycles were similar to gold’s in the 1970s – just as it had become a futures product itself and had a 10-year bull run followed by a 50% correction.
The 1970s rift in gold, TechDev notes, is an extremely good match for Bitcoin’s performance since October 2020.
#BTC / 70s gold fractal check …
Now it’s just getting ridiculous. pic.twitter.com/QOfJuwpceq
– TechDev (@ TechDev_52) October 15, 2021