Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week with a rare disappointment for its bull run in the fourth quarter – without cracking previous support.
After a promising weekend, BTC / USD was finally rejected twice at $ 60,000 and has since dipped below $ 57,000 as market momentum fades.
Much is at stake: some believe the sky-high Bitcoin price targets can still be met by the end of the month, while others believe this bull market will last longer than the previous ones.
As November becomes more and more likely that November will break with tradition and fall short – both when compared to recent months and in old bull market years – traders and analysts prepare for a nerve-wracking, but potentially interesting, month-end close.
Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors that could influence BTC price action in the final week of a uniquely stressful “moonvember”.
$ 60,000 flips to the resistance
For most of the weekend the sentiment among analysts was simple: “It could get worse.”
After BTC / USD hit a five-week low of $ 55,650, BTC / USD managed to make up some of its losses, and on Saturday “jumped even higher” to rise to $ 60,000.
This was ultimately unsuccessful, but there was another attempt on Sunday where Bitcoin enjoyed a few brief minutes in the $ 60,000 range before a staunch rejection crashed the market again.
At the time of writing on Monday, $ 57,000 is a focal point, with clear impetus that once solid support has turned to resistance.
Popular trader Pentoshi summed up sentiment and reiterated his wish for $ 61,000 to be reclaimed in support of bullish continuation.
$ BTC why 61k important?
Bc support bc came resistance. Hence the focus on this area for me for now.
Here’s another way to look at it.
What I want? I want it over 61k. Is the market interested in what we want?
$ 61,000 for the return of the bull pic.twitter.com/egMRfuLxfV
– Pentoshi won’t condemn you. hates dms. DMs are scams (@ Pentosh1) November 22, 2021
November 2021 has brought Hodlers negative returns of -6.5% so far, making it one of only three such Novembers in Bitcoin’s history to not see any profits.
As Cointelegraph reported, there have been transformative price moves in other years, not least in 2020 when BTC / USD climbed nearly 43% in November.
Sunday’s downturn nevertheless managed to close the most recent CME futures gap that emerged on Friday, which has also become a feature of spot price movement this month.
For fellow trading and analyst Crypto Ed, this was necessary to increase the chances of returning to the new week.
“Waiting for another leg to fill CME tonight and back up from there in the coming days,” he said in part of the Twitter comments on Sunday.
For all the frustration of a Bitcoin correction just when it is least welcome, not everyone is surprised – or concerned.
Short time frames can paint a very different picture of market health than longer time frames, and it is these that commentators are targeting this week to support a sustained bull thesis.
“When in doubt, zoom out” – compared to its performance in the two previous years after the block subsidies were halved, Bitcoin remains on course.
“Remarkably similar correction structures so far on the BTC 8H,” confirmed analyst TechDev on Sunday.
“Almost to the day 4 years apart. Since July 2021 is still 5–8 days behind 2017. “
TechDev cited data showing that this year, Bitcoin not only replicated its 2017 performance, but also practically copied the time frames for every phase of its bull market.
If this continues, the predicted blow-off top phase should also occur – except this time, an order of magnitude above the US $ 20,000 of 2017.
A chart also shows how Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is copying its 2017 performance, particularly in November.
Typically, bull cycle highs are accompanied by an RSI of 90 or more, which is a long way from current levels on lower time frames.
Funding rises on a $ 60,000 rematch
Although the battle for $ 60,000 was lost, trying to exit lower levels had undesirable effects on derivatives markets, where traders are again increasing leverage.
After effectively “rolling back” to neutral during last week’s lows, funding rates are back on the move.
Being overly positive, as was the case with Bybit, OKEx, and others at the time of this writing, suggests a bullish bias – the expectation that more gains are in the offing.
This can often lead to undesirable results as a fall in price will liquidate a large number of positions and the snowball effect will drive prices down even further.
So far, however, liquidations have remained muted – $ 70 million for Bitcoin and $ 219 million in the crypto markets in the past 24 hours.
“Because the liquidations are so questionable which side of the market will be tackled this week,” blogger 52kskew summarized on Twitter on Monday and noted what happened when the 60,000 US dollar re-tested.
The market is hungry for liquidity, and buying and selling volumes are falling.
(reflects that most market participants are waiting for confirmations or are secured)
It is debatable which side of the market will get rolling this week. https://t.co/tpnOsyGERZ pic.twitter.com/Hk4RIfGIiM
– Δ (@ 52kskew) November 22, 2021
Meanwhile, open interest in Bitcoin futures does not have to surpass the all-time highs prior to the November 10 slump.
The dollar is the star of the show
In the macro markets, the nervousness about coronavirus measures – and the protests in response to them – continues to be mixed.
With inflation already firmly on the radar, talks now turn to the US Federal Reserve, which will curb the pace of its asset purchases over the next month.
“If this idea gets publicized and is repeatedly underlined, it increases the likelihood that the tapering announced in December will be faster than the pace announced in early November,” said Jason Schenker, president and chief economist of forecaster Prestige Economics, said Bloomberg.
However, the US dollar is in the spotlight this week.
The greenback broke long-standing resistance this month and has hit its strongest since July 2020, according to the US dollar currency index (DXY).
Typically, pronounced DXY gains have the opposite effect on Bitcoin, which struggles during such phases. November was no exception as the DXY swaps are aiming to rise and hold a level of 96.
“The problem? The mood in the foreign exchange country is very extreme,” warned analyst Helene Meisler at the weekend.
Conversely, a trend reversal for the unusually volatile DXY would represent a test of the inverse correlation to BTC.
Feeling says “wait and see”
When it comes to market sentiment, investors within crypto are on the fence.
Related: Top Five Cryptocurrencies You Should See This Week: BTC, AVAX, MATIC, EGLD, MANA
The latest reading from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows that the market is actually completely neutral despite short-term price behavior.
Fear & Greed is 50/100 exactly in the middle of its possible range of values, which underlines a lack of “extreme” mood.
This could work in Bitcoin’s favor as last week’s shakeout pushed sentiment back into the “fear” area from which it has now rebounded.
Compare this to the Fear & Greed Index of Traditional Markets and the dichotomy is clear: “Extreme Greed” marked the latter at the previous close of trading, and now “Greed” remains.