There has been speculation among the crypto community as to whether the bitcoin spike of $ 69,000 was the culmination of this bull run. Here’s a comparison between some indicators to see how this top fares against the April high of $ 65,000.
Compare metrics between the November 10th and April 14th peaks
According to the latest weekly report from Arcane Research, most sentiment metrics highlight the differences between the two peaks.
The first relevant metric is the Futures Open Interest Indicator, which shows the total amount of Bitcoin involved in futures contracts at the end of a trading day.
Here’s how the chart compares between the April and November peaks:
Looks like April 14th top had decently more open interest
As you can see above, the April peak had almost 50,000 more BTC in open interest. This means that the market had a lot more excess leverage back then.
Related reading | Prepare for another downtrend: 15% of Bitcoin supply is now in the loss
Below is another chart comparing the unregulated futures basis between the two tops. “Basis” is basically the difference between the Bitcoin price and the futures price.
Average 3-month annualized basis in the unregulated futures market
The base of the unregulated futures market reached nearly 50% on April 14th, while it was only 17% on November 10th.
The base gap between the unregulated market and the CME was also higher for the former top, as was the Korean premium. The funding rates also showed significantly higher values for the period.
Nov 10th recorded relatively less overheated indicators
What these metrics show is that the futures foam was significantly more pronounced during the April high and that the market was overwhelmed.
However, two other indicators showed higher values for November 10th. The first of these was the fear and greed index, a metric that measures how fearful or greedy the market is.
Related reading | TA: Ethereum is showing positive signs as to why ETH could outperform Bitcoin
The other was Bybit and Binance’s global open interest share. Here’s what these indicators looked like for the two time periods:
The metrics where Nov 10th lead April 14th
To sum up, the high of $ 69,000 in November shows some significant differences from the high of $ 65,000 in April. So it is possible that this is not yet the high point of the Bull Run. Some other on-chain indicators also support the idea.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around 56.5k, down 6% over the past seven days. In the last month the coin has lost 10% in value.
Here is a chart that shows the trend in coin price over the past five days:
BTC's price continues to tumble down | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, Arcane Research